Prices: EOM Carbon order book, 01 Jul 2026 · 985 orders
Coverage: 986 asks · 13 bids · USD / EUR / GBP
CORSIA: CP1 Labelled tag only · 9 asks · 1 bid
News: Carbon Pulse · Carbon Direct · VCMI · Sylvera · Norton Rose
01
Market Headlines — June 2026
Carbon Pulse · Carbon Direct · VCMI · Sylvera · Jun 2026
SBTi releases new Corporate Net-Zero Standard — opens door to carbon credits
The Science Based Targets initiative published its revised Corporate Net Zero Standard on 11 June, formally recognising companies that invest in high-integrity voluntary carbon credits as part of their climate strategies. The VCMI Executive Director welcomed the standard, calling it a significant step toward building trust in voluntary carbon markets. The standard introduces two pathways: a Recognised tier (≥1% of Scope 1–3 emissions offset) and a Leadership tier (≥$80 internal carbon price, ≥40% of emissions funded). More than 10,000 SBTi-committed companies are now navigating what this means for procurement.
VCM retirements strong H1 2026 — but CDR purchases down 50%
New analysis published mid-June found VCM retirements across the first five months of 2026 were strong with volumes no longer concentrated at lower price points — a positive integrity signal. However, carbon removal purchases fell ~50% over the same period, raising questions over developer viability and whether demand boosts will be sufficient to sustain the CDR pipeline. The divergence mirrors Carbon Direct's finding that VCM retirements fell 7% in 2025 despite a 227% surge in corporate climate commitments.
Frontier CDR buyers club launches $900M+ advance market commitment
Carbon removal buyers club Frontier announced more than $900 million in a new advance market commitment (AMC) this week, onboarding two major AI and technology companies. The commitment signals sustained deep-pocketed demand for high-permanence removal credits through 2030 and beyond, reinforcing the structural bid for biochar, enhanced weathering, and DAC that is visible in EOM's order book at $115–$180/t. Microsoft, which accounted for the majority of durable CDR purchases in 2025, continues to set procurement benchmarks.
Kenya caps ITMO transfers at 10Mt (2026–2030) — shocks East Africa supply
Kenya announced it will limit Article 6 transfers to 10 million ITMOs between 2026 and 2030, surprising market participants given the scale of the country's existing carbon project pipeline. The cap may signal a fundamental shift for project developers relying on voluntary prices currently in single digits. Kenya hosts some of the most CORSIA-relevant cookstove and forestry projects; supply constraints there could push CP1 Labelled cookstove prices materially higher. Visible in EOM data: GS 10791 (Kenya cookstoves, CCP) offered at $17.50 forward.
Brazil BNDES announces R$2.7bn for forest restoration — new carbon credit pipeline
Brazil's national development bank BNDES and the Ministry of Environment announced five new forest restoration and agroforestry financing operations worth R$834 million ($164M), expected to leverage R$2.7 billion in total investment and generate millions of carbon credits. Five new ARR/REDD+ projects are expected to enter the VCS/Gold Standard pipeline in 2027–2028 vintages. Brazilian REDD+ and ARR are the dominant forward supply on EOM (VCS 3671, 24 REDD+ forward orders at $3.50–$42).
Verra publishes VCS Version 5 templates — mandatory from January 2027
Verra released new VCS Version 5 templates covering project descriptions, monitoring reports, and validation/verification reports, plus updated environmental and social safeguard templates. All project requests submitted after 1 January 2027 must use the new templates, including projects with audits already underway. Verra will host training sessions later in 2026. The update is expected to improve MRV quality but will add transition friction for projects targeting 2026–2027 vintage completion.
Verra issues VM0042 corrections and clarifications
Verra published corrections and clarifications for VM0042, the agricultural land management methodology underpinning the soil carbon segment visible in EOM's order book at $10–$41/t. The clarifications affect monitoring requirements and baseline recalculation procedures. Market participants are assessing whether any in-progress VM0042 projects require re-verification. EOM shows 6 recent soil carbon orders at $15–$41 with a 14-day w.avg of $26.08 — the strongest recent-activity signal in the order book.
Vietnam opens domestic carbon exchange at $5.20/t — Southeast Asia's first
Vietnam's newly launched domestic carbon exchange opened trading on Monday 30 June with carbon allowances priced at VND 136,000 (~$5.20/t), marking the pilot's first official transaction as the country prepares to roll out a full ETS. Indonesia simultaneously signed an MoU with a US nonprofit to explore jurisdictional REDD+ opportunities. Both developments reflect Southeast Asia's emergence as a centre of gravity for both VCM supply (Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia projects dominate CP1 Labelled on EOM) and nascent compliance demand.
CDM transition deadline largely missed — legacy supply exits market
The vast majority of carbon projects developed under the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) missed the Tuesday deadline to enable transition to Article 6.4 or voluntary registry continuation. The lapse effectively removes a significant tranche of legacy supply from both voluntary and compliance channels. The impact is most visible at the low-price end of EOM's order book — many sub-$1 Indian solar and old-vintage hydro orders with CDM heritage may see eligibility questions raised.
CORSIA: Only 15.85Mt issued from a single Guyana REDD+ project — supply gap acute
As of June 2026, only 15.85 million CORSIA-eligible credits had been issued by a single REDD+ project in Guyana, according to Sylvera research cited by Environmental Finance. With Phase 1 demand estimated at 137Mt (MSCI) and Phase 2 at up to 1,299Mt, the gap is structural. Corresponding adjustments remain the gating constraint: host-country LoA issuance determines what supply actually reaches the market. This directly explains why only 9 CP1 Labelled orders exist on EOM with a combined 1.33Mt.
UK launches first commercial DAC project — 60,000 tonne target
The UK's first commercial-scale Direct Air Capture project launched this month with a 60,000 tonne removal target, backed by a government contract for difference mechanism. The project joins a small but growing pipeline of UK-based engineered removals. EOM's Tech CDR order book remains thin (1 spot biochar order at $115, 1 forward at $180) but the structural demand signal from Frontier's $900M AMC and Microsoft's procurement benchmarks keeps prices elevated well above $100/t.
CORSIA Phase 2 (2027–2035) demand modelled at up to 1,299Mt — mandatory for all ICAO states
As Phase 1 enters its final six months, attention is shifting to Phase 2. Phase 2 is mandatory for all 193 ICAO member states (vs. 129 voluntary participants in Phase 1) and demand has been modelled at up to 1,299Mt by MSCI Carbon Markets. Airlines face a structural need to build multi-year supply programmes now. The absence of CP1 Labelled forwards on EOM — all 9 orders are spot — is notable against this backdrop: sellers are not yet committing forward into the Phase 2 transition.
All headlines sourced from Carbon Pulse (carbon-pulse.com), Carbon Direct (carbon-direct.com), VCMI (vcmintegrity.org), Sylvera, MSCI Carbon Markets, Environmental Finance, and Norton Rose Fulbright. Headlines reflect published reporting only — no editorial additions by EOM.
02
Spot Price Summary — All Sectors
885 Spot Ask Orders · USD · EOM 01 Jul 2026
Blue Carbon (spot)
$35.11
$12–$45 · n=14 · med $38.38
w.avg $18.02 · vol 661k · Pakistan/Myanmar premium
IFM (spot)
$15.22
$0.45–$39.50 · n=41 · med $15.50
w.avg $13.73 · vol 1.87Mt · US/Mexico dominated
ARR (spot)
$16.13
$0.15–$45.00 · n=74 · med $15.07
w.avg $17.45 · vol 3.40Mt
Agriculture / Soil (spot)
$17.94
$0.55–$40.00 · n=32 (agri)
Soil carbon: $10–$41 avg $15.83 · n=12
REDD+ (spot)
$4.92
$0.15–$15.75 · n=113 · med $4.10
w.avg $5.03 · vol 12.2Mt · wide quality spread
Cookstoves (spot)
$4.79
$0.75–$18.00 · n=99 · med $2.40
w.avg $5.05 · vol 5.93Mt · bimodal distribution
Wind (spot)
$1.47
$0.38–$6.00 · n=136 · med $0.90
w.avg $1.26 · vol 14.8Mt · oversupplied
Solar (spot)
$1.92
$0.40–$13.00 · n=72 · med $0.80
w.avg $1.05 · vol 13.4Mt · India dominates
Full Sector Price Matrix
| Sector | n | Min ($/t) | Max ($/t) | Avg ($/t) | Median | W.Avg | Vol (tCO₂) | Fwd range | Signal |
|---|
| Blue Carbon | 14 | 12.00 | 45.00 | 35.11 | 38.38 | 18.02 | 661,394 | 2 · $26–42 | ↑ Premium |
| Agriculture | 32 | 0.55 | 40.00 | 17.94 | 18.00 | 16.51 | 1,987,588 | 17 · $13–30 | ↑ Active |
| ARR | 74 | 0.15 | 45.00 | 16.13 | 15.07 | 17.45 | 3,399,264 | 5 · $15–25 | ↑ Robust |
| IFM | 41 | 0.45 | 39.50 | 15.22 | 15.50 | 13.73 | 1,874,372 | 2 · $16.20 | ↑ CCP premium |
| Soil Carbon | 12 | 10.00 | 41.00 | 15.83 | 14.50 | 13.53 | 1,746,529 | 3 · $20–24 | ↑ VM0042 active |
| Construction CDR | 12 | 9.50 | 18.00 | 13.92 | 15.00 | 14.18 | 266,833 | — | → Stable |
| Water Purifiers | 30 | 2.50 | 15.00 | 5.86 | 5.50 | 4.98 | 1,333,450 | 2 · $3–6 | → Stable |
| Chemical / N2O | 35 | 0.70 | 15.00 | 6.00 | 5.60 | 7.06 | 3,156,072 | — | → Mixed |
| Cookstoves | 99 | 0.75 | 18.00 | 4.79 | 2.40 | 5.05 | 5,929,720 | 15 · $2–28 | → Bimodal |
| REDD+ | 113 | 0.15 | 15.75 | 4.92 | 4.10 | 5.03 | 12,218,938 | 24 · $3.50–42 | → Quality split |
| Landfill Gas | 22 | 1.25 | 8.40 | 4.83 | 4.55 | 4.96 | 1,806,667 | 1 · $7.75 | → Stable |
| Waste | 22 | 2.00 | 26.00 | 5.91 | 5.00 | 5.89 | 1,126,217 | — | → Stable |
| Hydro | 22 | 0.20 | 15.00 | 2.78 | 0.62 | 0.65 | 23,694,628 | — | ↓ Oversupplied |
| Solar | 72 | 0.40 | 13.00 | 1.92 | 0.80 | 1.05 | 13,364,118 | 2 · $4–4.25 | ↓ Pressure |
| Wind | 136 | 0.38 | 6.00 | 1.47 | 0.90 | 1.26 | 14,817,029 | 14 · $0.70–4.50 | ↓ Commoditised |
| Biochar / Tech CDR | 1 | 115.00 | 115.00 | 115.00 | 115.00 | 115.00 | 20,000 | 1 fwd $180 | ↑ Structural bid |
EOM Carbon order book, 01 Jul 2026 · Ask-side USD spot orders only · W.Avg = volume-weighted average · CDM transition deadline (30 Jun 2026) may affect eligibility of some pre-2018 legacy orders
03
Vintage Trends — Spot Ask Prices by Issuance Year
885 Spot Asks · All Sectors · USD
Vintage year is the most consistent pricing driver across all project types on EOM. New-vintage premium is clear from 2022 onwards. The CDM transition deadline of 30 June 2026 adds a new layer: pre-2021 orders from CDM-heritage projects face potential eligibility uncertainty, which is not yet reflected in current ask prices.
| Vintage | n | Avg ($/t) | Median ($/t) | W.Avg ($/t) | Min | Max | Trend |
|---|
| 2014 | 8 | 1.79 | 1.12 | 0.69 | 0.15 | 5.40 | Distressed |
| 2015 | 12 | 5.78 | 1.62 | 0.99 | 0.20 | 40.00 | Skewed by blue carbon |
| 2016 | 14 | 3.33 | 2.05 | 4.56 | 0.15 | 20.99 | ↓ Discount |
| 2017 | 24 | 4.64 | 3.60 | 4.18 | 0.20 | 23.00 | → Modest recovery |
| 2018 | 44 | 8.83 | 5.75 | 2.61 | 0.25 | 40.00 | ↑ Step-up |
| 2019 | 46 | 8.86 | 3.25 | 7.16 | 0.30 | 150.00 | → Flat · outlier skew |
| 2020 | 117 | 6.82 | 3.50 | 6.16 | 0.35 | 36.95 | ↓ Integrity trough |
| 2021 | 154 | 6.24 | 3.33 | 4.32 | 0.45 | 45.00 | ↓ Trough continues |
| 2022 | 161 | 8.33 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 0.45 | 43.00 | ↑ Recovery begins |
| 2023 | 159 | 8.72 | 3.75 | 6.08 | 0.38 | 120.00 | ↑ Firming |
| 2024 | 97 | 9.44 | 2.50 | 4.63 | 0.40 | 149.00 | ↑ New-vintage premium |
| 2025 | 22 | 26.60 | 5.80 | 10.19 | 0.60 | 160.00 | ↑↑ Scarcity · thin book |
| 2026 | 4 | 8.25 | 8.75 | 8.32 | 6.00 | 9.50 | Thin · current vintage |
EOM Carbon order book, 01 Jul 2026 · Multi-year vintage ranges use first year · CDM transition deadline 30 Jun 2026 may introduce eligibility risk into pre-2021 CDM-heritage orders not yet reflected in pricing
04
CORSIA Phase 1 — CP1 Labelled Orders Only
Tag = "CP1 Labelled" · 9 Asks · 1 Bid · USD
Scope & Context
This section uses only orders tagged "CP1 Labelled" in EOM's ProgramEligibilities field. Orders tagged "CORSIA", "CP1 Eligible", or "ARTICLE 6.2" are excluded. As of June 2026, Sylvera and Environmental Finance report that only 15.85 million CORSIA-eligible credits have been issued from a single Guyana REDD+ project — starkly illustrating the supply gap against Phase 1 demand of ~137Mt (MSCI). The 9 CP1 Labelled orders on EOM with 1.33Mt combined represent the practical depth of immediately available compliance-grade supply visible in this market.
CP1 Ask Avg
$12.89
$10.00–$20.00 · n=9
Median $12.00 · w.avg $12.84
Total Offered Volume
1.33Mt
1,328,000 tCO₂ across 9 orders
All spot · no CP1 Labelled forwards on EOM
CP1 Bid
$9.00
1 bid · unspecified · 25,000t
2021–2026 vintage · spread $3–11 vs asks
Kenya ITMO Cap Risk
10Mt cap
2026–2030 · announced Jun 2026
GS 10791 Kenya CCP fwd at $17.50 — supply at risk
All CP1 Labelled Ask Orders
| Project | Country | Sector | Certs | Vintage | Ask ($/t) | Vol (tCO₂) | Validity | Other Tags |
|---|
| VCS 4000 | Gambia | Fugitive Emissions | — | 2024–2026 | 20.00 | 35,000 | Indicative | CP1 Labelled only |
| VCS 4531 | Uzbekistan | Chemical Industry (N2O) | — | 2021–2026 | 15.00 | 100,000 | Indicative | CP1 Labelled only |
| VCS 4531 | Uzbekistan | Chemical Industry (N2O) | — | 2021–2026 | 14.50 | 500,000 | Indicative | Largest single CP1 order · 45% of total vol |
| VCS 4150 | Rwanda | Energy Demand (Cookstoves) | — | 2023–2024 | 13.00 | 100,000 | Indicative | ARTICLE 6.2 also tagged |
| GS 11133 | Rwanda | Energy Demand | — | 2021–2026 | 12.00 | 100,000 | Indicative | CP1 Labelled only |
| VCS 2925 | Cambodia | Energy Demand (Cookstoves) | SD VISta | 2023–2024 | 11.25 | 125,000 | Indicative | CP1 Labelled only |
| VCS 3052 | Cambodia | Energy Demand (Water Purifiers) | SD VISta | 2024 | 10.25 | 68,000 | Indicative | CP1 Labelled only |
| VCS 2925 | Cambodia | Energy Demand (Cookstoves) | SD VISta | 2021–2026 | 10.00 | 200,000 | Indicative | CP1 Labelled only |
| VCS 2924 | Laos | Energy Demand (Cookstoves) | SD VISta | 2021–2026 | 10.00 | 100,000 | Indicative | CP1 Labelled only |
| Side | Project | Sector | Vintage | Price ($/t) | Volume | Note |
|---|
| BID | Unspecified | Unspecified | 2021–2026 | 9.00 | 25,000 | Portfolio bid · CP1 Labelled label-specific · spread $3–11 below asks |
CP1 Labelled — Order Book Insights
- Only 9 orders, 1.33Mt — directly consistent with Sylvera's finding that only 15.85Mt of CORSIA-eligible credits have been issued globally. The EOM CP1 Labelled book represents a thin but real slice of available compliance-grade supply.
- Uzbekistan (VCS 4531) dominates by volume at 600,000t (45%) for Chemical Industry / N2O abatement at $14.50–$15.00. Airlines building reputational portfolios may prefer nature-based alternatives.
- VCS 4150 (Rwanda) is the only CP1 Labelled + Article 6.2 co-tagged order on EOM — the highest-integrity combination available. At $13.00 for 100,000t of 2023–2024 cookstove credits, and Rwanda's LoA framework in place, this is the most credible compliance-grade supply visible.
- Kenya ITMO cap risk: Kenya's June 2026 announcement of a 10Mt transfer cap (2026–2030) could constrain GS 10791 forward cookstove volumes (CCP-labelled, $17.50 forward). Rwanda is emerging as a more stable supply alternative.
- No CP1 Labelled forwards on EOM — all supply is spot. Sellers are not forward-committing Phase 1 labelled inventory, consistent with Phase 1 ending December 2026 and the deadline-driven nature of compliance procurement.
EOM Carbon order book, 01 Jul 2026 · CP1 Labelled = ProgramEligibilities contains "CP1 Labelled" exact tag · External context: Environmental Finance / Sylvera (Jun 2026), MSCI Carbon Markets CORSIA Phase 1 demand estimate 137Mt
05
CCP-Labelled Orders — ICVCM Integrity Premium
Tag = "CCP" · 25 Spot Asks · USD
CCP Labelled Avg Ask
$7.75
$1.30–$19.85 · n=25
w.avg $7.97 · vol 2.19Mt · incl. BD chemical
Ex-Bangladesh CCP Avg
~$11.40
Removing VCS 2478/2930 N2O orders
More representative of NBS / forestry CCP market
CCP Context (ICVCM)
51Mt
Credits with CCP approval as of Dec 2025
~4% of total 2024 issuance · supply constrained (ClimateSeed)
CCP Spot Orders — High to Low
| Project | Country | Sector | Ask ($/t) | Vol |
|---|
| ACR 879 | US | IFM | 19.85 | 14,500 |
| ACR 922 | US | IFM + Biodiversity | 18.50 | 29,078 |
| GS 12289 | IN | Cookstoves | 17.75 | 75,230 |
| GS 11729 | NG | Cookstoves | 16.00 | 38,183 |
| CAR 1817 | MX | IFM | 14.55 | 1,212 |
| CAR 1710 | MX | ARR | 14.55 | 13,349 |
| ACR 922 | US | IFM + Biodiversity | 11.50 | 747,787 |
| CAR 521 / 558 | US | Landfill Gas | 7.00 | 95,000 |
| VCS 947 | US | Landfill Gas | 6.25 | 25,000 |
| CAR 1480 | US | N2O Abatement | 3.75–6.75 | 510,000 |
| GS 12062 | BR | Landfill Gas | 5.75 | 50,000 |
| VCS 2930 / 2478 | BD | Chemical/N2O | 1.30–4.00 | 587,000 |
Label Premium vs Unlabelled (EOM data)
CCP market context
As of December 2025, only ~51Mt of credits globally carry CCP approval — approximately 4% of 2024 total issuance (ClimateSeed). The SBTi new standard (Jun 2026) now explicitly references high-integrity credits, likely accelerating CCP-label demand. Market participants in the Environmental Finance VCM Rankings (Sep 2025) note clients are "specifically looking for the CCP label as a barometer of a good credit." The narrow supply base means the CCP premium on EOM ($11.40 ex-BD vs $4.92 REDD+ avg) is structural, not temporary.
EOM Carbon order book, 01 Jul 2026 · CCP = "CCP" in ProgramEligibilities · External context: ClimateSeed (Mar 2026), Environmental Finance VCM Rankings (Sep 2025), VCMI (Jun 2026)
06
Bid-Side Orders — Buyer Price Levels
13 USD Bids · EOM 01 Jul 2026
| Project | Country | Sector | Bid ($/t) | Vintage | Volume | Label | Spread context |
|---|
| VCS 2250 | Pakistan | Blue Carbon (Mangrove) | 35.00 | 2022 | 20,000 | None | Ask: $30.50–$37 · <6% spread · tightest on EOM |
| ACR 823 | US | HFC / Halocarbon | 9.50 | 2022 | 50,000 | CCP | CCP-labelled bid · specific project · informed buyer |
| ACR 979 | US | Chemical / N2O | 9.00 | 2024 | 50,000 | None | 2024 vintage chemical |
| Unspecified | — | Unspecified | 9.00 | 2021–2026 | 25,000 | CP1 Labelled | Portfolio bid · label-specific · $3–11 below asks |
| VCS 1477 | Indonesia | REDD+ | 8.50 / 8.25 | 2015–2016 | 24,000 | None | Dual bids · motivated buyer in legacy vintages |
| Unspecified | — | IFM | 8.00 | 2021 | 50,000 | None | Portfolio IFM bid · no project specified |
| VCS 2551 | — | REDD+ | 7.50 | 2021 | 30,000 | None | |
| GS 905 | — | Other | 5.00 | 2021 | 3,500 | None | |
| VCS 2458 | China | ARR (CCB) | 4.50 | 2020 | 50,000 | None | CCB certified |
| GS 10790 | — | Cookstoves | 3.00 | 2022 | 100,000 | None | Ask $4.00 same project · 25% spread |
| VCS 674 | Indonesia | REDD+ | 2.40 | 2018 | 5,000 | None | Ask $5.00–7.05 · 2–3x spread |
| VCS 2478 | Bangladesh | Chemical / N2O | 1.20 | 2019–2020 | 100,000 | CCP | Ask $2.50–4.00 · wide spread despite CCP |
EOM Carbon order book, 01 Jul 2026 · All 13 USD bid orders shown
07
Forward Market — Price Structure & Tenor
101 Forward Ask Orders · USD + EUR + GBP
| Sector | Fwd n | Fwd Min | Fwd Max | Fwd Avg | Spot Avg | Premium | Signal |
|---|
| Cookstoves | 15 | 2.10 | 27.65 | 16.03 | $4.79 | +235% | ↑↑ Quality-tier divergence |
| Biochar | 1 | 180.00 | 180.00 | 180.00 | $115 | +57% | ↑↑ Steep contango |
| ARR | 5 | 15.00 | 25.00 | 22.40 | $16.13 | +39% | ↑ Fwd premium |
| REDD+ | 24 | 3.50 | 42.00 | 9.18 | $4.92 | +87% | ↑ Quality supply premium |
| Agriculture / Soil | 20 | 13.00 | 30.00 | 19.60 | $17.94 | +9% | → Flat |
| IFM | 2 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 16.20 | $15.22 | +6% | → Flat |
| Blue Carbon | 2 | 26.00 | 42.00 | 34.00 | $35.11 | −3% | → Flat |
| Landfill Gas | 1 | 7.75 | 7.75 | 7.75 | $4.83 | +60% | ↑ Fwd premium |
| Water Purifiers | 2 | 2.95 | 6.00 | 4.47 | $5.86 | −24% | ↓ Fwd discount |
| Wind | 14 | 0.70 | 4.50 | 2.15 | $1.47 | +46% | → Slight premium |
Notable Forward Orders (USD + EUR)
| Project | Country | Sector | Ask | CCY | Delivery Vintage | Vol | Label / Note |
|---|
| VCS 3671 | PY | REDD+ | 7.50 | USD | 2022–23 | 1,500,000 | Largest fwd on EOM by volume |
| GS 10791 | KE | Cookstoves | 17.50 | USD | 2024–25 | 154,310 | CCP · Kenya ITMO cap risk |
| GS 12285 | SO | Cookstoves | 17.30 | USD | 2024 | 331,781 | CCP |
| GS 12299 | MZ | Cookstoves | 16.10 | USD | 2024 | 69,964 | CCP · FirmTillCancelled |
| VCS 1764 | MM | Blue Carbon | 42.00 | USD | 2021–23 | 25,000 | Highest NBS fwd on EOM |
| VCS 4679 | IN | Biochar | 180.00 | USD | 2023 | 10,000 | Highest priced fwd on EOM |
| GS 12226 | UG | ARR | 24–27 | EUR | 2024–2029 | 405,200 | EUR denom · long tenor |
| VCS 4176 | CM | ARR | 25–27 | EUR | 2024–2029 | 100,070 | EUR denom · 2027–2029 delivery |
| VCS 5684 | CG | ARR/REDD+ | 3.50–14.00 | USD | 2026–2030 | ~800k | FirmTillCancelled · long-dated |
EOM Carbon order book, 01 Jul 2026 · 101 forward ask orders (USD/EUR/GBP) · No CP1 Labelled forwards exist on EOM · Cookstove fwd premium reflects CCP-quality forwards vs unlabelled spot — not pure tenor
08
Firm Orders & Recent Activity
77 Firm Asks · 338 Active in 14 Days
Firm Orders — Committed Price Levels
| Sector | n | Firm W.Avg ($/t) | Total Vol | vs Indicative |
|---|
| Blue Carbon | 1 | 43.00 | 4,500 | Premium quality |
| REDD+ | 19 | 9.84 | 2,532,000 | ↑↑ 2x indicative |
| ARR | 8 | 16.79 | 442,465 | → In line |
| Agriculture | 5 | 14.00 | 1,360,000 | Fixed GS 13001 |
| Cookstoves | 7 | 8.14 | 280,190 | ↑ 1.8x indicative |
| Chemical / N2O | 4 | 8.62 | 400,000 | ↑ Firm above indicative |
| Water Purifiers | 4 | 7.85 | 167,438 | ↑ Firm premium |
| Wind | 4 | 2.66 | 954,528 | ↑ 2x indicative |
| Solar | 4 | 4.53 | 320,000 | ↑↑ 4x indicative |
Recent Activity — Last 14 Days (≥17 Jun)
| Sector | n | Recent Avg | Book Avg | Direction |
|---|
| Soil Carbon | 6 | 23.05 | $15.83 | ↑↑ +$7.22 |
| Water Purifiers | 12 | 7.98 | $5.86 | ↑ +$2.12 |
| ARR | 15 | 19.16 | $16.13 | ↑ +$3.03 |
| IFM | 15 | 16.46 | $15.22 | ↑ +$1.24 |
| Cookstoves | 19 | 5.45 | $4.79 | ↑ +$0.66 |
| Agriculture | 27 | 17.16 | $17.94 | → Flat |
| REDD+ | 36 | 4.56 | $4.92 | ↓ −$0.36 |
| Wind | 71 | 1.54 | $1.47 | → Noise |
EOM Carbon order book, 01 Jul 2026 · Firm = FirmTillCancelled or FirmTillDate · Recent = LastModifiedTimestamp ≥ 2026-06-17
09
Key Events Calendar — H2 2026 & Beyond
CORSIA · Article 6 · SBTi · ICVCM · COP
Events are ranked by significance to VCM pricing and CP1 Labelled / CORSIA supply. Sources cited inline where applicable.
Date
Event & Market Significance
Category
Signal
Jul 2026
EU reassesses CORSIA alignment with EU ETS aviation rules. European Commission evaluating whether CORSIA sufficiently incentivises aviation decarbonisation. If deemed insufficient, EU ETS may extend to EEA-departing flights — which would reduce airline CORSIA obligations and contract eligible demand. CORSIA Phase 2 transition may also be shaped by this outcome. (Carbon Pulse; Anthesis Carbon Guide Jun 2026)
CORSIA
HIGH
Jul 2026
EU ETS revision — Ireland presidency targets December agreement. Ireland (holding EU Council rotating presidency from July) aims to secure a deal on the EU ETS revision before end of 2026, including potential inclusion of CDR credits. Decision could create first large-scale compliance demand for CDR in Europe. (Carbon Pulse 30 Jun 2026)
CDR/ETS
MED
Jul 2026
Indonesia targets export sale of 30 million forestry carbon credits. Following MoU signed with US nonprofit on jurisdictional REDD+, Indonesia is targeting export of 30Mt of forestry credits in July. If LoA framework is in place, this could materially increase CORSIA-eligible supply from Southeast Asia — a key region given Cambodia and Laos CP1 Labelled projects on EOM. (Carbon Pulse VCM Portal)
Supply
HIGH
Q3 2026
SBTi Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0 final publication. Following the June 11 draft release, final publication is expected in Q3. Will clarify procurement guidance for 10,000+ SBTi-committed companies — the most significant latent VCM demand catalyst of 2026. Companies choosing the Leadership pathway (≥$80/t internal carbon price) will generate significant demand for high-integrity credits. (Carbon Direct; VCMI Jun 2026)
Demand
HIGH
27 Aug 2026
Carbon Market & Investor Forum — Singapore. Key Asia-Pacific gathering of carbon market participants. Likely to feature CORSIA Phase 1 compliance updates and Southeast Asia Article 6 developments. Vietnam's new domestic exchange ($5.20/t, opened 30 Jun) and Indonesia's REDD+ export plans will be prominent themes. (Carbon Market Institute)
Event
MED
31 Dec 2026
CORSIA Phase 1 ends. All 2024–2026 international aviation emissions above the ICAO baseline must be offset. Airlines must cancel CP1 Labelled credits (or other eligible EEUs with corresponding adjustments) equal to their obligation. With only 15.85Mt issued from one Guyana project as of June, supply constraint is acute — prices are expected to rise sharply as the deadline approaches. Airlines not already covered face acute procurement risk. (Sylvera; MSCI; Norton Rose Fulbright)
CORSIA
HIGH
Jan 2027
Verra VCS Version 5 templates become mandatory. All project requests submitted after 1 January 2027 must use updated VCS V5 templates (MRV, environmental/social safeguards). Transition friction expected — may delay new listings in H1 2027, temporarily tightening spot supply. (Carbon Pulse Jun 2026; Verra)
Registry
MED
Jan 2027
CORSIA Phase 2 begins — mandatory for all 193 ICAO member states. Phase 2 (2027–2035) extends coverage from 129 voluntary to 193 mandatory states. MSCI Carbon Markets estimates Phase 2 demand at up to 1,299 MtCO₂ — nearly 10x Phase 1. This structural demand shift will pull forward procurement into H2 2026 for carriers planning ahead. Corresponding adjustment framework under Article 6.2 must scale to meet this demand. (MSCI; Norton Rose Fulbright; CORE Markets)
CORSIA
HIGH
Jan 2027
Mexico ETS operational launch (target). Mexico's ETS is on track for a 2027 operational launch, with officials noting expected low initial carbon prices and a key role for offsets. ARR and REDD+ credits from Mexico (visible on EOM: CAR 1817, CAR 1710 at $14.55 CCP-labelled) could feed both voluntary and domestic compliance markets. (Fastmarkets Jun 2026)
ETS
MED
Jan 2028
CORSIA Phase 1 retirement deadline. Airlines must cancel all EEUs for 2024–2026 emissions growth above the ICAO baseline by 31 January 2028. This is the hard deadline driving current procurement urgency. Sylvera projects compliance costs at $23–33/t in base case, rising above $55/t if supply remains constrained. The current EOM CP1 Labelled ask range of $10–$20 implies sellers are pricing well inside forward compliance cost projections — a potential mispricing opportunity. (Sylvera; Regreener; HFW; Norton Rose)
CORSIA
HIGH
2026–27
Article 6.4 methodology approvals continue. Only one methodology (landfill gas) has been approved under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) to date. Further approvals — particularly for REDD+, cookstoves, and soil carbon — are expected through 2026–2027. Article 6.4 credits with UN supervisory body approval could command significant premiums and expand CORSIA-eligible supply. CDR credits would open a new segment. (Carbon Direct; ClimateSeed; Carbon Market Watch)
Article 6
HIGH
2027
UK Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandate decision on CDR inclusion. If CDR credits are included in the UK SAF mandate, this would create the first large-scale compliance demand for removal credits outside CORSIA — a structurally significant new demand pool. Combined with the UK's first commercial DAC project (launched Jun 2026, 60,000t target), UK-sourced CDR could become a new EOM order book category. (Carbon Direct 2026)
CDR
MED
Events — Summary Risk Matrix
- Highest near-term risk: CORSIA Phase 1 supply gap into December 2026 — directly visible in EOM CP1 Labelled book (9 orders, $10–$20, no forwards). Indonesia's July export target and continued LoA authorisations are the key supply variables.
- Highest structural demand catalyst: SBTi V2.0 final publication (Q3 2026) — opens formal procurement for 10,000+ companies. Combined with CCP label growth (~51Mt CCP-approved, ~4% of total issuance), quality supply constraint will intensify.
- Highest long-term demand event: CORSIA Phase 2 (Jan 2027) — mandatory 193-state coverage, up to 1,299Mt demand vs current Phase 1 at ~137Mt. This is the structural driver behind the REDD+ forward premium (+87% vs spot) on EOM.
- Downside risk: EU ETS alignment review (Jul 2026) — if EU extends its ETS to EEA aviation, CORSIA demand contracts and the CP1 Labelled premium may unwind. Currently low probability but non-trivial.
Sources: Carbon Pulse (carbon-pulse.com), Carbon Direct (carbon-direct.com), Carbon Market Institute (carbonmarketinstitute.org), Fastmarkets (fastmarkets.com), MSCI Carbon Markets, Sylvera, Norton Rose Fulbright, CORE Markets, Regreener, ClimateSeed, VCMI (vcmintegrity.org), Environmental Finance. All events are indicative — dates subject to change.
PRICE DATA: All carbon credit prices are sourced from live orders in the EOM (Emsurge Open Markets) Carbon order book, accessed via the EOM MCP API on 1 July 2026. 985 active, non-archived orders with prices above zero. CORSIA analysis uses only "CP1 Labelled" tag — "CORSIA", "CP1 Eligible", and "ARTICLE 6.2" tags are excluded from CORSIA section. Prices are offer levels (PriceFrom field), not executed transaction prices. W.Avg = volume-weighted average.
NEWS & EVENTS: Headlines and event commentary sourced from Carbon Pulse, Carbon Direct, VCMI, Sylvera, MSCI Carbon Markets, Environmental Finance, Fastmarkets, Norton Rose Fulbright, CORE Markets, Regreener, ClimateSeed, Carbon Market Institute, and Anthesis. All sourced content is attributed inline. EOM makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of third-party sources.
DISCLAIMER: For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Recipients should conduct independent due diligence. Confidential — professional use only. © EOM / Emsurge 2026.
